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3 Apr 2008 13:49:05 IST
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probability
None

A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability
of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.


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Sahil Gupta's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 13:56:27 IST
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edited
i think it should be: 5C2 / 1 + 3C2 + 4C2 +5C2
= 10/ 1+3+6+10
=10/20
=1/2
sandeep ramesh's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 13:57:40 IST
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thats definitely wrong :) as the prob is diff in each case while you have treated each as having the same prob
 
@ the poser: its just casework
Sahil Gupta's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 14:05:29 IST
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edited sandeepramesh. hope that it is correct now
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3 Apr 2008 14:12:41 IST
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but still, shouldnt you multiply each of them by the prob of a 6 i.e. 1/6 or a prob of not a six i.e. 5/6 as reqd??
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3 Apr 2008 16:14:50 IST
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ans = 625/23328
Akhil's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 16:38:50 IST
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Probability of gettin 3 die in three throws
=1/6*1/6*1/6
probability to get in 4 throws
=3C2*5/6*1/63
in 5 throws
=4C2*(5/6)2*(1/6)3
and so on

so required case = 5C2*(1/6)3(5/6)3
now total set is sum of all cases
 general term for summation
=(2+r)C2(5/6)r(1/6)3

so probability=5C2*(1/6)3(5/6)3/summation(r=0 to r= infinity)(2+r)C2(5/6)r(1/6)3
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:09:30 IST
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A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.



Probability of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die = sum of prob. of different ways in which this can be acheived

Considering getting six to be a success, and not getting six as failure.
P(success) = p ; P(failure) = q

last throw is success, now out of remaining 5, number of ways in which 2 can be success is:
5C2 = 10.

so 10 ways in which 3 successes and 3 failures can be rearranged, with one success fixed at 6 throw.

so 10 x p.p.p.q.q.q
= 10 . (1/6)^3 . (5/6)^3
= 1250 / 46656
= 625/23328
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:10:56 IST
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@sandeepramesh
:D no cases required... all will have same probability we just have to add them...
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:13:37 IST
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Akhil :D :O
ur solution is scaring me to death hehehehhehehe
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3 Apr 2008 17:14:00 IST
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Are we asked the probability of 3rd being a 6 GIVEN that there are only 6 throws??
Or is it like we have to find probability that the throwing stops at 6th throw when the no of throws can be
3,4,5...infinity??
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:15:19 IST
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A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained. Find the probability of obtaining the third six in the sixth throw of the die.

he stops when he get the third six on the sixth throw :)
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:16:33 IST
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it isntt fixed that he will stop at 6th throw .. we have to find probability that he gets his thrid six on the 6th throw and due to that he stops there
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3 Apr 2008 17:18:27 IST
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But isnt this the sample case
"A die is thrown again and again until three sixes are obtained"

neways then my whole denominator has to be blown away!!
sandeep ramesh's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:36:52 IST
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yeah sorry, but for the denominator we will have an infinite gp
Gaurav |spideyunlimited| Ragtah's Avatar

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3 Apr 2008 17:54:23 IST
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no we dont need it...
we just need to multiply probability of result of each throw.



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