let a sample space(S) be divided into n events. E1,E2,.....En
E
1
E
2......E
n = S
let A be an event in S
TOTAL PROBABLITY THEORM states that
P(A) = P(A/E1) + P(A/E2) + ....P(A/En)
WHERE
P(A/E1) is the probablity of happening of A given that E1 has happened
BAY'S THEORM STATES THAT
P(A/Ei) * P(Ei)
P(Ei/A) = --------------------------------------------
P(A/E1) + P(A/E2) + ....P(A/En)
ASK FOR CLARIFICATIONS IF ANY.