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Ask iit jee aieee pet cbse icse state board community Community Discussion Question: Probability.......a+b balls.....try in out.....
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pramod6990 (955)

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ok..here's a nice Q........there are n urns.....each urn contains 'a' white and 'b' black balls........i first pick up one ball at random from the first urn and place it inside the second urn.....then pick up a ball at random frm the second urn and put it into the 3rd urn........and pick up a ball at random frm the 3nd urn and put it into the 4th urn and so on.......after the whole process is over....wats the probability that a randomly picked up ball from the 'k'th urn turns out to be a white ball.........


"Logic is the systematic way of reaching the wrong conclusion with confidence" lol.....
    
riku (99)

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well c..


From first bag,, the white ball can be selected in  a/(a+b)  ways .. And black in b/(a+b)... Let the white be selected ,, then placed in second bag.. so second bag contains (a+b+1) for the moment,, If white is selected then it has (a+1) white balls,,, and if black is selected than it has,, (b+1) black balls[and a white] from total...


so probability of gettin white from this second bag is given by



thus selection of white from every consecutive bag (in filling process) is given by  a/(a+b)..


For the kth bag,, the selected bag can go through four cases::


1) that it has taken white from previous bag, and given white to next bag..;


2)that it has taken white from previous bag, and given black to next bag..;


3)that it has taken black from previous bag, and given white to next bag..;  and


4)that it has taken black from previous bag, and given black to next bag............


For first case,, the bag would have taken a white ball from previous bag with prob. a/(a+b)  and given white to following bag with a/(a+b) prob. the cases occur one after other..Now while selecting white ball,, the total no. of balls is (a+b) and no. of white balls is "a"...


so prob. of selection becomes::: 


since three of them occur simultaneously..


Following similar approach,, we get it for


2)


3)


4)


 


Adding all these possibilities we get..



 


bas yaar,, i could think till here!!!


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pramod6990 (955)

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 jus a small silly mistake.....but i guess u shud continue with da soln..............


"Logic is the systematic way of reaching the wrong conclusion with confidence" lol.....
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riku (99)

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is it wrong?/


if then pls. correct it..


The key of success is not in being Master of all.
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pramod6990 (955)

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sorry yaar....i guess a/(a+b) is actually the rite answer............


look......


let Wi denote the event of getting a white ball from a random draw frm the ith bag an B for black ball..........


P(W2) = P(W1) P(W2/W1) + P(B1) P(W2/B1)


= a/(a+b)* (a+1)/(a+b+1) + b/(a+b) *a/(a+b+1)


=a/(a+b)......


same way.......


P(W3) = P(W2) P(W3/W2) + P(B2) P(W3/B2)


= a/(a+b) * (a+1)/(a+b+1) + b/(a+b)* a/(a+b+1)


again = a/(a+b).....


i guess this will keep continuing for all the values of i and is independent of ' i '..........


 


"Logic is the systematic way of reaching the wrong conclusion with confidence" lol.....
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pramod6990 (955)

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ooopsss........


sorry yaar..my soln. is totally wrong...........crappp donot refer it.............forgot the main part of the problem........


experts.....frnds help us out of this one..........


"Logic is the systematic way of reaching the wrong conclusion with confidence" lol.....
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