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![[Post New]](/templates/default/images/icon_minipost_new.gif) 18 Mar 2008 21:36:28 IST
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2 cases:
case 1: red ball is transfered from bag I to II
this happens with prob of
3/7
now bag II has 5 red and 5 black balls
probablity of picking red=5/10=1/2
so total probability for this to occur=3/7*5/10=15/70
Case 2: black ball is transfered
this happens with chance of 4/7
now bag 2 has 4 red, 6 black
so prob to pick red= 4/10
total probablity= 4/7*4/10=16/70
by bayes rule,
P=probalbility that black was transfered/total probability
=16/70/(16/70+15/70)
=16/31
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