Let the angle made by the line joining the source to the circumference of the disc be q1 with respect to the vertical. And the angle of refraction into the air be q2. Then we have,
1.4 sin q1 = sin q2 --------------(1)
Also tan q1 = r / 30 -------------(2)
From 1 and 2 we can calculate q2 in terms of r
Now the shadow area on the roof will have a radius R = r + x, where x is given by,
Tan q2 = x / 100 -------------------(3)
From 3 we get the value of x in terms of r.
Now the maximum value of r is obtained by putting q1 = C, where C is the critical angle for the water and air surface, where C is given by
Sin C = 1 / 1.4